Monthly Archives: October 2015

The future, well understood

Posting restarted.

I’ve been delving into Philip Tetlock’s work on forecasting.  The book is a must read…once I clear the other must-read’s off my list. In some far off, utopian, parallel universe, leaders make policy decisions based on the mental models used by Tetlock and the “superforecasters.” Of course, we live on earth – inhabited by humans…so it’s a no-go on reason-based decision making.

For those interested in learning more about the forecasting competitions run by Tetlock and team see  and Tetlock’s site.