I’ve been delving into Philip Tetlock’s work on forecasting. The book is a must read…once I clear the other must-read’s off my list. In some far off, utopian, parallel universe, leaders make policy decisions based on the mental models used by Tetlock and the “superforecasters.” Of course, we live on earth – inhabited by humans…so it’s a no-go on reason-based decision making.
For those interested in learning more about the forecasting competitions run by Tetlock and team see www.goodudgement.com and Tetlock’s site.
First, here is a wonderful article written by Ian Lustick (University of Pennsylvania) on the improbability of a two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Finally, someone says what needs to be said. Far too much diplomatic cognition has gone into the illusion of this type of settlement.
The Syrian mess. If you scroll down to my “Intervention” post, you’ll notice I set the likelihood of a US strike on Syria at 90%. In the madness of the last two weeks, the 10% reared its unlikely Russian head. In terms of US foreign policy, the events of the last few weeks demonstrated a severe lack of competence on the part of the Obama administration. It’s safe to say it was amateur night on Pennsylvania Avenue.
Meanwhile….this blog points out more shenanigans at the NSA…it’s awful nice of the NSA to provide everyone with an encryption standard that only they can crack.